Modeling Basketball’s Points per Possession With Application to Predicting the Outcome of College Basketball Games
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this paper we consider how to model basketball's points per possession data, and we show that the flexibility provided by a multinomial logistic regression is required for modeling this type of data. We show how to apply this model to ranking college basketball teams, and a method for estimating team win probabilities with this model is provided. We show how to use these win probabilities to fill out an NCAA tournament bracket, and we compare the results of filling out tournament brackets with the multinomial model to the results of a simpler model. We find neither model to be better than the other at predicting NCAA tournament games (in terms of statistical significance).
منابع مشابه
Ball possession effectiveness in men's and women's elite basketball according to situational variables in different game periods.
The aim of the present study was to identify the importance of basketball performance indicators in predicting the effectiveness of ball possessions in men's and women's basketball, when controlling for situational variables and game periods. The sample consisted of 7234 ball possessions, corresponding to 40 games from the Spanish professional leagues. The effects of the predictor variables on ...
متن کاملA Model for Predicting the Outcomes of Basketball Games
We investigated the task of predicting the outcomes of sporting events, in particular, basketball games. In two experiments, college students predicted the outcomes of a series of National Basketball Association (NBA) games. Following each prediction, the subject received feedback in the form of the actual outcome of the NBA game. After a period of initial learning about the relative strengths ...
متن کاملTwo Dimensional Basketball Localization and Location Prediction
In two dimensions, we accurately predicted the trajectory of a basketball using approximately ten images each taken less taken less than three tenths of a second after a shooter a free throw. Our trajectory predictions were made using automatically stabilized handheld video footage of a shooter releasing a free throw. Although we used only the first few images of the shooter releasing the baske...
متن کاملThe effect of imagery, observation and execution of the pattern in the field on the performance of the regulated games of skilled basketball players
Abstract The effectiveness of different educational methods in learning different types of motor skills has been considered. However, comparisons of these methods in regulated team sports games have been less studied. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to compare the three educational methods of imagery, observation, and execution of in-field pattern on the performance of regulated ga...
متن کاملThe Effect of an Educational Program for Mental Visualization to Teaching Some Shooting Skills for Basketball Beginners
Background. Although the educational program for teaching basketball shooting has been discussed, the mental visualization of teaching shooting skills for beginners has not been discussed yet. Objectives. The purpose of this study is to identify the effect of mental visualization in teaching some types of basketball shooting skills. Methods. The experimental method was chosen for its suitabil...
متن کامل